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Delinquency Rate Drops Below 5 Percent For First Time Since 2007

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Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

Thee nationwide mortgage delinquency rate fell to an eight-year low following its largest month-over-month decline in nine years, according to Black Knight Financial Services‘ “First Look” at Mortgage Data for March 2015 released Wednesday.

The delinquency rate (percentage of residential mortgage loans 30 days or more past due but not in foreclosure) dropped to 4.70 percent for March (approximately 2.38 million loans), the first time the rate has been below 5 percent since August 2007. The rate fell by 12 percent since February, the largest month-over-month decline in nine years.

The percentage of loans 90 days or more delinquent but not in foreclosure also declined substantially month-over-month and year-over-year in March by 96,000 and 228,000, respectively, down to 971,000 loans. The number of residential properties with loans 30 days or more overdue or in foreclosure was 3.16 million for March, a decline of 350,000 from February and from 678,000 in March 2014.

Meanwhile, the monthly prepayment rate, which is historically a good indicator of refinance activity, increased by 40 percent from February to March and by a whopping 103 percent year-over-year in March, up to 1.62 percent.

Although foreclosure starts spiked by 18 percent month-over-month up to 94,100 for March, the overall picture for foreclosure data was bright. The foreclosure rate, or the percentage of residential mortgage loans in some state of foreclosure, declined by 27 percent year-over-year in March down to 1.55 percent. That represented approximately 782,000 loans, the lowest total since December 2007.

“Black Knight data shows that the national delinquency rate dropped 12 percent in March, marking the largest monthly decline in 9 years and pushing delinquencies below 5 percent for the first time since August 2007,” Trey Barnes, Black Knight’s SVP of Loan Data Products. “While foreclosure starts did spike 18 percent from the month prior, the increase doesn’t seem to be driven by seasonality or any other clear influencer. Starts are actually trending slightly downward over the past two years, so we may be looking at a one month anomaly in March.”

Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.  Check back tomorrow.

Author: Brian Honea – http://dsnews.com/news/04-22-2015/delinquency-rate-drops-below-5-percent-for-first-time-since-2007

Existing home sales explode as spring homebuying season officially arrives

Spring House

Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.
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Existing-homes sales surged to their highest annual rate in 18 months, showing a promising beginning to the spring homebuying season, the latest report from the National Association of Relators said.

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, jumped 6.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.19 million in March from 4.89 million in February—the highest annual rate since September 2013 (also 5.19 million).

This is positive news for the industry after existing-home sales collapsed 4.9% in January to the lowest rate in nine months, falling well below analyst expectations. And while they did pick up in February and edged up by 1.2%, there was still some stagnation in the market.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the housing market appears to be off to an encouraging start this spring.

“After a quiet start to the year, sales activity picked up greatly throughout the country in March,” he continued. “The combination of low interest rates and the ongoing stability in the job market is improving buyer confidence and finally releasing some of the sizable pent-up demand that accumulated in recent years.”

Furthermore, sales have increased year-over-year for six consecutive months and are now 10.4% above a year ago, the highest annual increase since August 2013 (10.7%). March’s sales increase was the largest monthly increase since December 2010 (6.2%).

Total housing inventory at the end of March grew 5.3% to 2 million existing homes available for sale, and is now 2% above a year ago (1.96 million). Unsold inventory is at a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 4.7 months in February.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $212,100, which is 7.8% above March 2014, marking the 37th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains and the largest since February 2014 (8.8%).

“The modest rise in housing supply at the end of the month despite the strong growth in sales is a welcoming sign,” adds Yun. “For sales to build upon their current pace, homeowners will increasingly need to be confident in their ability to sell their home while having enough time and choices to upgrade or downsize. More listings and new home construction are still needed to tame price growth and provide more opportunity for first-time buyers to enter the market.”

The percent share of first-time buyers was 30% in March. This marks the third time since last March that the first-time buyer share was at or above 30%. First-time buyers represented 29% of all buyers last month; they were 30% in March 2014.

“The jump in March’s existing sales beat expectations and is welcome news for those who have been waiting for the spring housing market to kick into gear,” said Quicken Loans Vice President Bill Banfield. “Purchase applications have been steadily increasing over the last month and rates remain low (for now) – both of which could be signals of continued momentum in the coming months.”

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 6.9% to an annual rate of 620,000, and are 1.6% above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $240,500, which is 1.6% below a year ago.

In the Midwest, existing-home sales escalated 10.1% to an annual rate of 1.20 million in March, and are now 12.1% above March 2014. The median price in the Midwest was $163,600, up 9.7% from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the South climbed 3.8% to an annual rate of 2.19 million in March, and are now 11.7% above March 2014. The median price in the South was $187,900, up 9.3% from a year ago.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 6.3% to an annual rate of 1.18 million in March, and are now 11.3% above a year ago. The median price in the West was $305,000, which is 8.3% above March 2014.

Surges to highest level in 18 months

Fannie Mae Offers First-Time Home Buyers Big Help With Closing Costs

This 5 bedroom, 3-bath house qualifies for 3% closing cost from Fannie Mae

 

Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

If you’re a first-time home buyer just entering the market, you’re in for a springtime treat: Fannie Mae will now pay your closing costs, up to 3% of the price of the home—provided you take the mortgage giant’s home-buyer counseling course first.

The new HomePath Ready Buyer program, announced on Wednesday, allows first-time buyers (defined as those who have not owned a home in the past three years) to take an online course, get certified, and become eligible for what could amount to significant savings. For instance, on a $150,000 home, Fannie Mae could contribute up to $4,500 toward your closing costs—which typically range from 2.5% to 3% of a home’s price—and even reimburse you for the $75 online course.

“This could actually get someone in the game,” said Frank Montro, a Chicago-area real estate broker who specializes in selling rehabbed homes. “This goes straight to the buyer’s needs.”

Montro says first-time home buyers are usually either “cash-poor or credit-poor. They pay their bills on time and they qualify for the mortgage, but they just don’t have the savings.”

By offering closing cost assistance on their properties, Fannie Mae is opening the gates to a pool of people who have largely been left behind in the housing market recovery. Traditionally, first-time buyers have made up about 40% of the market. Last year, they accounted for 33%, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

While this announcement marks the mortgage giant’s latest step in loosening credit availability—it also announced a new 3% down loan program in December—it does so with some strings attached. The closing cost credit applies only to properties in Fannie Mae’s own inventory.

Fannie Mae owns thousands of houses across the country, all seized in foreclosure proceedings, and now the government-backed private corporation is actively trying to unload that inventory. Searching our own site’s listings, we found 7,075 single-family homes listed as Fannie Mae HomePath properties.

April 17th, 2015 – Chrystal Caruthers – http://www.realtor.com/news/fannie-mae-first-time-home-buyer-closing-costs-help/

Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.  Check back tomorrow for more.

FICO announces new credit program for risky borrowers

Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

FICO (FICO), LexisNexis Risk Solutions and Equifax (EFX) released the official details to the new pilot program that was first reported on Wednesday, potentially opening the door to help millions of borrowers secure financing for a home.

The three firms are working together to create a pilot program that will allow 12 of the largest credit card issuers in the U.S. to use alternative data to identify creditworthy individuals who would otherwise be unlikely to obtain traditional credit.

After the pilot program is complete in the coming months, FICO expects to make the score based on alternative credit data available to more lenders later this year.

FICO’s data scientists found that alternative data such as property records, telecommunications and utility information can reliably be used to score 15 million consumers who do not have enough credit data to generate FICO scores.

By using alternative data from LexisNexis and Equifax, FICO will give card issuers a FICO Score that complies with relevant regulations that they can use to extend credit responsibly to millions of additional people.

Card issuers will be able to use the alternative score without having to “rip and replace” existing systems, significantly lowering the cost and accelerating time to market.

“Working with Equifax and LexisNexis, we set out to help unbanked, under-banked and disadvantaged people gain equal access to the standard credit products enjoyed by millions of Americans,” said Jim Wehmann, FICO’s executive vice president for Scores.

“We’re excited by our pilot program’s strong results thus far. FICO’s focus is on expanding access to credit; not simply scoring more people. Our approach also addresses a paradox for people seeking their first traditional credit product – you often need a credit history before you can get traditional credit,” added Wehmann.

This falls in lines with recent talks from housing regulators on finding alternatives to traditional credit scoring.

Several real estate trade groups spent Wednesday discussing the challenges that credit standards pose for access for some would-be borrowers and alternatives to traditional credit scoring.

The event, co-hosted by the National Association of Realtors, the Asian Real Estate Association of America and the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals, included two roundtable discussions and a keynote address from Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro.

Come back tomorrow to http://www.AshfordCP.com/blog  where Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

Author: Brenda Swanson – http://www.housingwire.com/articles/33445-its-official-fico-announces-new-credit-program-for-risky-borrowers

Producer Prices in February – Falling Prices, Except for Gypsum

Softwood lumber prices declined 1.6% in February. The Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Index points to further declines in March. Analysts point to softer than expected US single family construction in 2014, inventory management on the part of distributors, and softening overseas markets as factors. Additional declines will be tempered going forward by possible log shortages and continuing transportation bottlenecks.

Prices for OSB declined 2.9% after modest upticks in the prior three months. The return of mothballed capacity since 2013 has supply outpacing demand. Random Lengths indicates additional declines in March. The PPI for OSB indicates a 46% decline from the price peak in March 2013.

Prices for gypsum jumped 3.9% in February after a 4.3% increase in January reaching an all-time high. Gypsum prices are now 5.4% higher than their 2006 housing boom peak while single family housing starts remain depressed at roughly half the normal level of production.

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Come back tomorrow to http://www.AshfordCP.com/blog  where Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

 

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Fannie Mae Reports All-Time High for Consumer Optimism Toward Economy

Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

Fannie Mae Housing Survey Consumer OptimismConsumers were more optimistic toward the economy than they’ve been at any point in the last five years, according to Fannie Mae‘s February 2015 National Housing Survey released Monday.

The percentage of respondents who said they believe the economy is on the right track increased by 3 percentage points since January’s survey up to 47 percent, an all-time high since the survey began nearly five years ago. The rise in consumer optimism is largely attributed to recent employment gains, which totaled nearly 300,000 for February and averaged 266,000 per month in the last 12 months, according to the most recent report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In that same BLS report, the nation’s unemployment rate dropped to 5.5 percent, its lowest level in nearly seven years.

Also hitting an all-time high for Fannie Mae’s housing survey was the percentage of respondents who said they believe it is easier to get a mortgage today (54 percent). The share of respondents who said they believe it would be difficult to get a mortgage dropped by 4 percentage points to an all-time survey low of 43 percent.

“Continuing improvements in consumer attitudes in this month’s National Housing Survey lend support to our expectation that 2015 will be a year of the economy dragging housing upward,” said Doug Duncan, SVP and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “The share of consumers who think the economy is on the right track rose to a record high since the inception of the survey nearly five years ago and for the first time exceeded the share who believe it’s on the wrong track. Consumer confidence seems to be getting a boost from employment growth. This is reflected in their views on the ease of getting a mortgage today, which also reached a survey high in February.”

One area where Duncan said needs improvement in order for the prediction of the economy “dragging housing upward” to come true is in the area of wage gains. According to the BLS employment report released last week, the average hourly wage increased from January to February by only 3 cents up to $24.78 – after rising by 12 cents from December to January.

While the percentage of respondents in Fannie Mae’s survey who said they believe home prices will go up in the next 12 months declined to 46 percent, the share who said home prices will go down also declined, to 6 percent. The percentage who said mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months increased to 48 percent.

Those numbers combined with the attitudes of survey respondents regarding their finances and income does not bode well for housing. About 46 percent of respondents said they expect their personal finances to get better in the next 12 months, representing a decline from January. The percentage of respondents who said their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago declined by 5 percentage points, down to 24 percent.

According to Fannie Mae, the percentage of survey respondents who said they expected to buy a home the next time they move declined by 1 percentage point but still was reported at 65 percent for February.

“We continue to see strength in attitudes about the current home buying and selling environment and consistently high shares of consumers saying they expect to buy a home on their next move,” Duncan said. “At the same time, we still need to see further growth in consumer optimism toward personal finances and income for more robust improvement in housing market attitudes.”

Author: Brian Honea March 9, 2015 – http://dsnews.com/news/03-09-2015/fannie-mae-reports-all-time-high-for-consumer-optimism-toward-economy?utm_source=DSNews.com&utm_campaign=7e373a66ee-Your_Daily_Dose1_28_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1924082bfe-7e373a66ee-175200045

Come back tomorrow to http://www.AshfordCP.com/blog  where Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

$4.5 Billion in Nonperforming Loans, Delinquent Debt to Hit the Market

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Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

Three of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders have put sizable packages of nonperforming and reperforming mortgage loans on the market for investors to buy,according to New York-based loan broker Mission Capital Advisors.

First reported by Bloomberg, The loans are worth a combined $4.5 billion, Mission Capital said. Bank of America has put up approximately $2.56 billion worth of delinquent debt for sale, including nonperforming loans, reperforming mortgages (those in which the borrower was 90 days or more behind but has resumed making payments), and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), according to Mission Capital. Citigroup has put up $1.8 billion worth of reperforming mortgages for sale, and JPMorgan Chase is looking for a buyer for $143 million worth of nonperforming mortgage loans, Mission Capital said. The sale was first reported by Bloomberg News.

According to Mission Capital, there has been an increased demand for delinquent mortgage loans, troubled debt, and nonperforming mortgages among hedge fund investors and private equity firms. Last month, Freddie Mac announced that it intended to sell $410 million worth of delinquent mortgage loans. But there has been so much of a demand that the suppliers cannot keep up, Mission Capital said.

“The supply has yet to meet the demand that’s out there,” Mission Capital managing director Luis Vergara said. “A lot of capital has been set aside to invest in residential product.”

Spokespeople from Citi and JPMorgan Chase declined to comment on the sale of the delinquent or nonperforming loans. A spokesperson from Bank of America said the bank did not comment on “market rumors.”

Data compiled by Mission Capital shows that about $4.2 billion worth of nonperforming loans and $3.2 billion worth of modified or reperforming loans have traded or been put up for sale so far this year.

Author: Brian Honea February 13, 2015 http://dsnews.com/news/02-13-2015/4-5-billion-in-nonperforming-loans-delinquent-debt-to-hit-the-market?utm_source=DSNews.com&utm_campaign=6128f3d2ec-Your_Daily_Dose1_28_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1924082bfe-6128f3d2ec-175200045

Come back tomorrow to http://www.AshfordCP.com/blog  where Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

President Increases HUD Budget By $4 Billion for FY 2016

HUD Budget FY 2016As analysts and critics pore over the details of the White House’s proposed budget for fiscal year 2016, the executive department in charge of housing says it hopes to use its share to restore cuts made after 2013’s budget sequester.

Included in President Barack Obama’s newest budget is $49.3 billion set aside for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), a $4 billion increase over last year.

In a statement, HUD Secretary Julián Castro said the proposed funding provides a “blueprint for greater opportunity for all Americans.”

“By increasing our Department’s funding level by nearly $4 billion over current levels, the President’s Budget helps us continue our progress toward achieving our mission to promote homeownership, support community development—including making neighborhoods more resilient from natural disasters—and expand to affordable housing for all,” Castro said.

In a call with reporters, HUD Deputy Secretary Nani Coloretti explained that much of the budget will be used to undo some of the cuts made as the department experienced budget restraints as a result of sequestration. Included in that category is the planned restoration of 67,000 Housing Choice Vouchers used to help fund rental housing assistance for low-income families.

Also on HUD’s agenda for fiscal year 2016 is a $2.5 billion investment for Homeless Assistance Grants, which the department hopes to use for housing counseling, transitional programs, and other initiatives to meet the administration’s goals of ending homelessness.

Based on current projections, HUD says it is on track to end veteran homelessness by the end of 2015 and chronic homeless by the end of 2017.

The budget also includes $250 million to assist neighborhoods with distressed HUD-assisted housing, $748 million to promote housing and community development for Native American tribes, and $50 million to convert public housing units to project-based rental assistance contracts.

A more complete rundown of HUD’s planned budget can be found at the department’s website.

While the administration may have big plans for the next year, analysts anticipate a fight with Republicans over the full scope of the budget, which comes to nearly $4 trillion.

“Of course we hope the entire budget will get through Congress,” Coloretti said in a conference call with reporters. “… I know that some of our proposals remain both popular and supported by Congress because we accept every community,” she said.

Author: Tory Barringer February 3, 2015 – http://dsnews.com/news/02-03-2015/president-increases-hud-budget-4-billion-fy-2016?utm_source=DSNews.com&utm_campaign=9b9614a3b9-Your_Daily_Dose1_28_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1924082bfe-9b9614a3b9-175200045

Come back tomorrow to http://www.AshfordCP.com/blog  where Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

7.3 Million Boomerang Buyers Poised to Recover Homeownership in Next 8 Years

The first wave of 7.3 million homeowners who lost their home to foreclosure or short sale during the foreclosure crisis in 2015 are now past the seven-year window they conservatively need to repair their credit and qualify to buy a home. More waves of these potential boomerang buyers will be moving past that seven-year window over the next eight years corresponding to the eight years of above historically normal foreclosure activity from 2007 to 2014.

While millennials have gotten a lot of attention lately as the generation whose below-normal homeownership rates are changing the landscape of the U.S. real estate market, the boomerang buyers — who are primarily Generation Xers or Baby Boomers — represent a massive wave of potential pent-up demand that could shape the housing market in the short term even more dramatically. U.S. Census data shows home ownership rates for those ages 35 to 44 — roughly Generation X — were 11 percent below historical averages going back to 1994 in the third quarter of 2013, while home ownership rates for the below age 35 cohort were 10 percent below historical averages.

RealtyTrac analyzed foreclosure, affordability and demographic data to provide predictions of when and where these boomerang buyers are most likely to materialize. Nearly 7.3 million potential boomerang buyers nationwide will be in a position to buy again from a credit repair perspective over the next eight years. Here’s how those emerging boomerang buyers break down by year.

Markets with Most Potential Boomerang Buyers

Markets with the most potential boomerang buyers over the next eight years among metropolitan statistical areas with a population of at least 250,000 were not surprisingly in some of the nation’s largest markets that were also hardest hit by the housing crisis. These are primarily in the Sun Belt and Rust Belt.

Markets with Highest Share of Potential Boomerang Buyers

A similar set of markets show up in the list of those with the highest rate of potential boomerang buyers as a percentage of total housing units, with markets that were once epicenters of the foreclosure problem showing up in the top five.

Markets Where Boomerang Buyers Most Likely to Materialize

Markets most likely to see the boomerang buyers materialize are those where there are a high percentage of housing units lost to foreclosure but where current home prices are still affordable for median income earners and where the population of Gen Xers and Baby Boomers — the two generations most likely to be boomerang buyers — have held steady or increased during the Great Recession.

There were 22 metros among those with at least 250,000 people where this trifecta of market conditions is in place, making these metros the most likely nationwide to see a large number of boomerang buyers materialize in 2015 and beyond. For all the markets on this list potential boomerang buyers represent at least 5 percent of all housing units, house payments on a median priced home require 28 percent or less of the median household income, and the population of Gen Xers and Baby Boomers combined has stayed steady or increased between 2007 and 2013.

Methodology: The Millennial generation is defined as someone who was born between the years 1977 to 1992. In 2013 Millennials would have been between the ages of 21 to 36. In 2007 the Millennial generation was between the ages of 15 to 30. The Generation X generation is defined as someone who was born between the years 1965 to 1976. In 2013 Generation Xers would have been between the ages of 37 to 48. In 2007 Generation Xers were between the ages of 31 to 42. The Baby Boomer generation is defined as someone who was born between the years 1945 to 1964. In 2013 Baby Boomers would have been between the ages of 49 to 68. In 2007 Baby Boomers were between the ages of 43 to 62.

http://www.realtytrac.com/news/foreclosure-trends/boomerang-buyers/

Fannie Mae: Economy pulls housing out of doldrums

Improving fundamentals support gradual housing momentum

Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

Driven by strengthening private domestic demand, economic growth is expected to accelerate modestly this year and drag last year’s unspectacular housing activity upward, according to Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group.

Fannie’s analysts say that amid continued low gasoline prices, firming labor market conditions, rising household net worth, improving consumer and business confidence and reduced fiscal headwinds, the economy is expected to climb to 3.1% in 2015, up from the a previous estimate of 2.7% in the prior forecast.

The stronger economic backdrop should lead to improving income prospects, underpinning a higher rate of household formation in 2015.

“Our theme for the year, Economy Drags Housing Upward, implies that both housing and the economy will pick up some speed in 2015, but that the economy will grow at a faster pace,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. “We have revised upward our full-year economic growth forecast to 3.1% for 2015, which is not yet robust but still an improvement over last year’s growth. Consumer spending should continue to strengthen due in large part to lower gas prices, giving further support to auto sales and manufacturing. We believe this will motivate the Federal Reserve to begin measures to normalize monetary policy in the third quarter of this year, continuing at a cautiously steady pace into 2016 and 2017, likely keeping interest rates relatively low for some time.”

“Strength in the broader economy, accompanied by continued employment growth and meaningful income growth, should contribute to some improvement in housing activity this year,” said Duncan. “Given historically low mortgage rates and a gradual easing of lending standards, our forecast calls for a 5.8% increase in total home sales for the year. Most of that is likely to come from growth in existing home sales, but we expect the rising share of new home sales to lead to a healthy increase in single-family construction of about 19%, or 765,000 units. Although we don’t view this as signaling a breakout year for housing, we do expect to see broad-based improvement in 2015 following a disappointing and uneven year for the housing recovery in 2014.”

Come back tomorrow to http://www.AshfordCP.com/blog  where Kennesaw’s Ashford Capital Partners’ Managing Partners Matt Riedemann brings you news you can use.

Author:  Trey Garrison – http://www.housingwire.com/articles/32683-fannie-mae-economy-pulls-housing-out-of-doldrums